Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Obama vs. McCain

The electoral map at this site http://www.electoral-vote.com/ shows the latest polling numbers from each state, and the electoral vote breakdown based on those numbers. Current standing is 270-243 for Obama, with 13 not included based on Virginia being currently a tie.

I have only a slight quarrel with the breakdown. New York is said to be "weak Democratic" based on a lead of "only" 8 percentage points for Obama. To me this is a sizable lead and the dividing point between "weak" and "strong" should be somewhat lower than 10%. Similarly, a 4% lead is classified as "barely", when "weak" would be more appropriate.

Of the close states, these are 1% for McCain--Ohio, Florida, Montana; 3% for McCain--North Dakota, North Carlina; 4% for McCain--South Dakota. 1% for Obama--New Hampshire; 2% for Obama--Colorado; and 3% for Obama--Nevada. 6 close states for McCain and only 3 for Obama, so big edge to Obama here. Put another way, 71 of McCain's 243 electoral votes are in jeopardy, while only 18 of Obama's 270 votes are in jeopardy based on today's numbers.

3 comments:

Rob said...

I was comparing several of the sites last night and noticed similar problems. RCP's map has Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico as toss-ups, even though Obama is leading by 4.3, 4.5, and 4.3 points in their polls of that states, and Obama has had larger leads in most other polls. One has to draw the line somewhere and they drew it at 5%. The general point that the more one breaks down the numbers the better Obama looks.

Of course, Republicans always throw out as many "improper" ballots as they can in poor districts which leads to about 3% of votes not counted in poor neighborhoods which have improper equipment.

I this John Zogby had proven himself as the best pollster over and over again. His polls are a bit more unique and complex, and differ a lot from the other pollsters right now. His current site includes Barr and Nader, and he has Obama ahead or within one point in Arkansas, Texas, Arizona, and Georgia! His latest poll also has McCain in the lead nationally by a bit.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Rob said...

Correction: Obama down by 3 in TX, not 1. Zogby has
Arizona:
Obama - 42%
McCain - 39%
TX:
McCain - 42%
Obama - 39%
Arkansas:
GA:
Obama - 42%
McCain - 41%
TX:
McCain - 42%
Obama - 39%
He lists all these as Red states still, but it is interesting nonetheless. In conclusion, Obama has 260 or 269 electoral votes controlled by a 4% lead or larger. Colorado accounts for whether he has 260 or 269, depending on what polls one uses.

chessart said...

I assume you meant McSame up by 3 in Arizona. My site shows McSame up by 8 in Arizona, up by 9 in Texas (instead of 3), and up by 7 in Georgia (instead of 1).