Monday, November 17, 2008

Does Missouri Still Merit Bellwether Status?

At this writing the Presidential result in Missouri has still not been called. Apparently McCain is clinging to a lead of about 5K votes, making it is likely he will win the State. If so, then my pre-election prediction is correct, based on that state being infested with rednecks.

This will mean it's the second election in the last 25 elections that Missouri has not voted for the winner, the first being in 1956 when it sent for Stevenson. Missouri has been known as the bellwether state for this record of picking winners.

Does it still deserve this status? A review of the past 25 elections suggests not. There is another state that has only missed once in the past 25 elections. And that state is.....ta da.....Nevada! So, Nevada becones the new bellwether state, having missed only when it went for Ford in 1976.

But beyond that, there are two other states which have only "missed" twice. One is New Mexico, which missed in 1976 and 2000, but the latter was a disputed election so it really shouldn't count against New Mexico. I would say New Mexico is also a better bellwether now than the redneck Missouri.

The other new bellwether is Ohio. Ohio has only missed in 1944 and 1960, out of the past 25 elections. Next, with 3 misses, comes Tennessee (1924, 1960, & 2008). With 4 misses we have Illinois, Kentucky, and Montana.

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