Tuesday, March 29, 2011

MLB Predictions for 2011

Once again it's time for the annual predictions.

AL East. Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays.

Red Sox are improved over last year, while the Yanks struck out, for a change, in the free agent market. An easy choice for first place. Idiosyncratic pick here for the O's over the Jays, as I'm banking on Showalter getting the O's in shape to play much better.

AL Central. Twins, Tigers, White Sox, Indians, Royals.

I decided last year that it was folly to pick against the Twins, as they always exceed expectations. One of my favorite cities, in one of my favorite ballparks, with one of my favorite managers. I was tempted to go with the improved Tigers, but in the end I decided to stick with my Twins. Sox and Indians also improved, but they rate only 3rd and 4th. Royals need to move to a more supportive part of the country--census data shows the trend continues towards the Southwest.

AL West. Rangers, Angels, A's, Mariners.

Usually I expect a team to drop back after a season like the Rangers had last year. But they got to the WS, which has to be considered. Angels are one of my favorite teams, but I'm going with only 2nd for them.

NL East. Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Mets, Nationals.

Phillies are a lock with their 4 great starters. Even if one goes down, they should win the World Series, and I am picking them over the Red Sox in the WS. Marlins are still young and hungry, so they rate the nod over the Mets for 3rd place. Mets are old and breaking down and over-paid.

NL Central. Brewers, Reds, Cards, Cubs, Astros, Pirates.

Card are another one of those teams, like the Twins and Angels, that I hate to ever pick against, because they always seem to defy expectations. But with Wainwright going down, and the Brewers being so improved, I can't put the Cards higher than 3rd. The loveable Cubs will extend their 102-year losing streak. Pirates, like the Royals, need to relocate.

NL West. Giants, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks.

Dodgers are another team I always like to go with, but I can't go against the defending champs here.

3/28/16 update.  The Red Sox did indeed have a good year with 90 wins, but it was only good for 3rd place in the AL East. The Orioles finished last with only 69 wins.  The Twins sunk to last in the AL Central, with only 63 wins. I was perfect in the AL West.

In the NL East, I had the Marlins and Nationals flip-flopped, other teams were correct. In the Central, the Cards and Reds were flip-flopped, and the Pirates finished ahead of the Cubs and Astros. In the West, the D-Backs surprised with a first-place finish, with the other teams in their predicted order.

The statistical analysis is that I was exactly right on 9 teams, 1 off on 12 teams, 2 off on 6 teams, and 4 off on 3 teams (Twins, Cubs and D-Backs).


chessart said...

Only two weeks in, but still interesting to see results to date. I will do it a little differently than in the past, listing teams that are "X" amount of places away from where I predicted.

4 -- Red Sox, Twins

3 -- Indians, Royals, Blue Jays

2 -- Tigers, Nationals, Braves

It looks like there are 12 teams one away. The predictions are already considerably closer than what would be expected from a random listing.

chessart said...

Best record is Phillies at .714. At .667 are Yanks, Rangers & Rockies. Marlins at .650.

Red Sox and Twins have climbed out of the cellar, so analysis looks much better, as no 4 aways any more.

At 3 are Twins & Indians.

At 2 are Red Sox, Royals, White Sox, Nationals, Braves & Giants.

chessart said...

The Red Sox have overcome their early-season funk and are now in first. Only 4-aways now are Twins, mired in last at .333 (worst record in baseball), and the D-Backs, who just took over first from the Giants (who just lost Buster Posey in a home-plate collision).

Only teams still over .600 are the Phillies at .623 (no surpise here) and the Indians at .620 (big surprise here). Indians are the only 3-away team, as most divisions are going according to my predictions.