Saturday, August 26, 2023

The First Republican Debate

Eight GOP candidates participated in Wednesday's debate. Here are some of my takeaways.

Only two candidates indicated they would not support Donald Trump if he were convicted of a crime, the two being Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie. And one, Vivek Ramaswamy, indicated he would pardon Trump on day one.

Ramaswamy was the most interesting of the candidates. He started out coming across as an electric, very charismatic, character, but by the end he had been so battered and bruised by criticism from the other candidates that he was revealed to be the inexperienced interloper that he is. Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, and Chris Christie were the most agressive critics of Ramaswamy, who really self-destructed when he called climate change "a hoax".

Oddly, the candidates pretty much left Ron DeSantis alone and went after Ramaswamy instead. My theory for this is that they recognized that DeSantis is a failing candidate and would self-destruct if left alone. DeSantis came across as arrogant, angry, and uniquely unlikable. His performance was easily the worst of the eight. He repeatedly refused to give a straight answer to simple questions, instead going into prepared rants. He wouldn't answer whether he favored a federal abortion ban, even when asked by a reporter after the debate. And he wouldn't answer whether he thought Mike Pence did the right thing on January 6th, 2021.

Mike Pence was unusually (for him) aggressive, which might help him some. But he also made a fool of himself by repeatedly interrupting the others, so much so that he had to be ademonished by one of the moderators. Pence used a line I'd hoped I would never hear again, which is that "we need a government as good and decent as the American people". To me this is total baloney. Pence seemingly was trying to be a reincarnation of Ronald Reagan, but there was only one Reagan, and Pence's efforts fell flat. Other candidates were correct in pointing out that we have serious problemns, and morale is low in this country. To say that our best days lie ahead of us, as Pence did, just sounds like nonsense, and ignores the need to solve the serious problems facing this country.

Pence had a cringeworthy moment when he told Ramaswamy "I'll talk slower", a patronizing comment which was reminiscent of that infamous moment in the 1984 vie-presidential debate, when George H.W. Bush said to Geraldine Ferraro, "Let me help you with the difference between" (two named countries), a remark so condescending that it elicited audible gasps from the audience.

Tim Scott gave a disappointing performance. He could have helped himself with a compelling performnce, but instead he was bland and unimpressive. Doug Burgum, the North Dakoota governor, had a unique prspective as a small town guy who espoused small town values. He will certainly move up in the polls.

Nikki Haley probably helped herself the most. She would clearly be the best candidate for the general election. But, given the sorry state of today's GOP, there is little chance of her getting the nomination.

Haley had several moments which stand out. She vigorously called out Ramaswamy for his lack of foreign policy experience, saying he had no such exerience, "and it shows". Then, turning to the audience, she repeated, "It shows". In discussing the war in Ukraine, she took a suble and very effective swipe at DeSantis, who had said that he would not support additional funding for Ukraine until European countries start doing their part. Without mentioning DeSantis by name, she pointed out that eleven European countries are spending more as a percentage of GDP than we are for the defense of Ukraine. A third highlight moment for Haley is when she asserted that the Republicans are as guilty as Democrats for the explosion in the national debt. She pointed to the $7.4 billion in earmarks requested by Republicans in the 2024 budget, compared to only $2.8 billion asked for by Democrats. “So you tell me who are the big spenders,” she said. “I think it’s time for an accountant in the White House."

All eight shamelessly demogogued the abortion issue. Same with the inflation issue. They all repeatsedly blamed Joe Biden for the recent inflation, even though he is clearly not to blame. The inflation is caused by the cut-off of oli from Russia, the reduction in agricultural products from Ukraine, and the supply chain bottlenecks caused by the pandemic. U.S. inflation is less than in any of the other developed covuntries, so this should be a plus issue for Biden, rather than a negative. But this type of demagogic criticism is all the GOP can muster against Biden. And of course noone mentioned that unemployment is at a 50-year low.

Sunday, August 13, 2023

Football belongs in the fall, not the summer

I was shocked to see the local high school football team practicing in the first week of August. Back in the day you couldn't start practice until August 20th.

And now they're actually playing games in August! With global warming being what it is, the football season should be starting later, not earlier! Do we not care about the health and welfare of our youth?

Friday, August 11, 2023

The Iowa Caucuses

Almost all of the Republican presidential candidates are at the Iowa State Fair. I am totally perplexed by this obsession with Iowa. A review of the history reveals that the winner of the Iowa caucuses is the eventual nominee only about a third of the time in contested elections.

This review shows these winners: for Democrats, Muskie won in 1972, with eventual nominee McGovern 2nd; Gebhardt won in 1988, with eventual nominee Dukakis 3rd; Harkin 1st in 1992, with eventual nominee Clinton 4th (with only 3% of the vote!)

On the GOP side, Bush won over Reagan in 1980, Dole won over Bush in 1988, Huckabee won over McCain in 2008, Santorum won over Romney in 2012, and Cruz won over Trump in 2016.

Caucuses are a horrible way for a political party choose its candidates. because only the most passionate party members turn out, and these are usually the most extreme party members. The result is we get radical leftists from the Dems, and radical rightists from the GOP, adding to the horrible polarization in today's politics.