I was 26 positions off last year, two better than the year before. The AL West was again my best with only two off (I flip-flopped the A's and Angels). The AL Central was the worst with eight off, with the Guardians surprisingly finishing first, the Tigers and Royals tying for second, and the Twins dropping down to fourth. The White Sox were dismal, setting a record with 121 losses. The other divisons were four off.
And now we turn the page to a new year.
AL East: Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Rays
The Yankees have been beset with Spring Training injuries, but I can't find another team to pick for first. The Rays have really gone downhill, and will be playing in a minor league park in 2025. I can't see a future for them in Tampa Bay, a city which refuses to support them.
AL Central: Guardians, Tigers, Royals, Twins, White Sox
I really don't think the Guardians are going to win their division again, but I don't know which team, the Royals or the Tigers, is going to edge them out for first. The Twins made no offseason moves to improve, and may even sink to last place, as the White Sox will surely be better than last year (they could hardly do worse!).
AL West: Astros, Rangers, Mariners, Angels, Athletics
The Astros burst into the upper echelon in 2017, and Jose Altuve became my favorite player. But then the cheating scandal hit, and now they are universally hated. But they probably have one more year left at the top of their division. Like the Rays, the A's will be playing in a minor league park in 2025, and this has to be demoralizing to their players.
NL East: Phillies, Mets, Braves, Nationals, Marlins
I have a strange fascination with the Phillies. Their owner has tried hard to build a championship team, and I applaud his efforts. Their fans, while notoriously rowdy (they once booed Mike Schmidt!), at least care about their team. Either the Mets or the Braves could win the divison, but I'm going with the Phils as a sentimental pick.
Like Tampa Bay and Oakland, Miami refuses to support its team. I don't know why MLB doesn't move these sick franchises. Florida has proven that it won't support MLB, and MLB needs to pay attention to this reality and proceed accordingly.
In 2003, a year the Marlins won the World Series, their average home attendance was only 16K, the third lowest in MLB, ahead of only the Rays and the Expos. The next year, as reigning World Series champions, it went up to 21.5K; better, but still the fifth-lowest in MLB. In 2012 the Marlins got a new stadium, and attendance per game went up to 27.4K, still only 18th out of the 30 teams. By last year, attendance fell back down to 13.4K, ahead of only the woeful A's.
NL Central: Cubs, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Cardinals
The Cubs and the Reds have improved, while the Brewers have not, and hence I pick the Brew Crew to fall to third. The Cubs and Reds have two of the best managers in MLB, with Craig Counsell and Terry Francona, and I think these two fine managers will get the most out of their players.
The Cardinals have made no efforts to improve from last year. They have historically been the best-run franchise in baseball, so I give them the benefit of the doubt that they know what they are doing in deciding to build for the future rather than going after free agents. But that does not augur well for the coming year.
NL West: Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants, Rockies
The Padres are one of my favorite teams, playing in the best baseball city in the country. Hence I am picking them over the D-Backs for second as a sentimental pick. The Rockies have not improved, and surely will again finish last.