Saturday, July 13, 2019

"Grand Inquests: The Historic Impeachments of Justice Samuel Chase and President Andrew Johnson", by William H. Rehnquist

I first read this book in the mid-1990s, after my interest in U.S. presidential history had been piqued by Eugene Roseboom's wonderful book, "A History of U.S. Presidential Elections".  Since then I have read many books and articles on impeachment, but Rhenquist's book still remains the best thing I have read on the subject.

"Grand Inquests" is much more than an account of the two major 19th-century impeachments.  Most of the book consists of a remarkably well-written and entertaining history covering the period of 1775 to the 1868 Johnson impeachment trial.

Rhenquist emphasizes that in the early years the Supreme Court justices spent only a few weeks a year in Washington sitting as members of that court. The rest of the time they "rode circuit", traveling around in the geographic area to which they were assigned, and sitting with a local federal judge to try cases. It was for actions in his capacity as a circuit rider for which Chase was impeached, and in no way pertained to his Supreme Court duties.

Rhenquist says that from the beginning the justices "complained bitterly" about their "onerous circuit-riding duties", and turnover was high.  As a result, the Judiciary Act of 1801 was passed in the lame-duck session of Congress in February of 1801, just before Jefferson took office. This Act created six new circuit courts, and sixteen new circuit judges, to be named by outgoing president John Adams.

Jefferson's party regarded this, "with considerable justification, as a piece of political chicanery".  The undelivered commission to James Marbury, for the minor office of justice of the peace for the District of Columbia, resulted in the celebrated case of Marbury v. Madison, in which the Supreme Court declared its authority to find acts of Congress unconstitutional.

Chases' impeachment trial began on February 4, 1805, presided over by Vice President Aaron Burr, who after the trial would "disappear into the wilderness on an adventure, the purpose of which still puzzles historians. He would emerge two years later from that wilderness in the custody of United States marshals....to be tried for treason".

The first Article of Impeachment against Chase dealt with his handling of the John Fries trial. Fries was on trial for treason for his involvement in the 1799 Fries Rebellion, which was the third of the three major tax revolts in 18th-century U.S. history, the others being the 1786 Shays Rebellion and the 1794 Whiskey Rebellion.  I have a special interest in the Fries Rebellion, since it involved a revolt of Pennsylvania Dutch farmers, some of whom no doubt were among my ancestors on my mother's side.

Chase's error in his handling of the Fries trial was that he delivered an opinion on a question of law, without first allowing the defense counsel to have their say.  This opinion was announced by Chase even before the trial started, and it involved the definition of "treason".  Treason is the only crime defined in the Constitution, which says that "Treason against the United States shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to her Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort".

Since we were not at war at the time of the Fries Rebellion, the last part of the definition could not apply, and the accusation had to be that Fries was "levying war".  Chase's opinion, announced without hearing counsel, was that "any armed resistance to the enforcement of a federal statute" could be considered to be "levying war".  Obviously this is seriously open to interpretation, and counsel should have been allowed to argue this matter fully to the jury, especially in light of the fact that poor Fries was on trial for his life.

The Senate vote on the Fries article of impeachment against Chase was 18-16 for acquittal, and on another article, also for Chase's mishandling of a circuit rider case, the vote was 19-15 for conviction, still four votes short of the 2/3 super majority required by the Founders.

The votes followed party lines, except that six Republicans defected and voted for acquittal. The only one of the six who explained his vote is Samuel Michill, who wrote almost daily letters to is wife. After the vote he wrote:

"Thus, this tedious and important trial is brought to an end. All this mighty effort has ended in nothing. On this occasion myself and my colleague Smith acted with the Federalists. But we did so on full conviction that the evidence, our oaths, and the Constitution, and our conscience required us to act as we have done."

Another first-hand report is from the diary of John Quincy Adams, who was in the Senate as the time.  As usual, John Quincy gets it about right when he writes:

"This was a party prosecution, and is issued in the unexpected and total disappointment of those by whom it was brought forward. It has exhibited the Senate of the United States fulfilling the most important purpose of its institution, by putting a check upon the impetuous violence of the House of Representatives. It has proved that a sense of justice is strong enough to overpower the furies of factions; but it has, at the same time, shown the wisdom and necessity of that provision in the Constitution which requires the concurrence of two-thirds for conviction upon impeachments. The attack upon Mr. Chase was a systematic attempt upon the independence and powers of the Judicial Department..."

I have three main takeaways from the Adams statement. First, it references the danger which the Founders saw in (pure) democracy. Hence, the Founders built in all kind of safeguards to ensure that the "passion of the moment" cannot prevail in our system. One of these safeguards is the six-year term for Senators, providing a check on the "impetuous violence" and the "furies of factions" of the House.  Another safeguard is the Electoral College, helping to ensure that a demagogue cannot be elected (although the election of Trump shows that the E.C. no longer fulfills that function).

A second takeaway is the wisdom of the two-thirds majority required for important decisions like a conviction at an impeachment trial. The Founders wrote this into our system for important decisions, like approval of a treaty by the Senate. Certainly this concept was ignored by the British in the Brexit referendum, a horrendous idea violating both of the principles Adams alludes to. Whatever was Cameron thinking?

A third takeaway, not mentioned by Rhenquist, is that Adams himself ignored his own principles and participated in a "party prosecution" when it was his party doing the impeaching. This occurred in 1842 when John Tyler was the subject of an impeachment attempt by House Whigs because of his vetoes of Congressional legislation. The head of the House select committee for this impeachment attempt was none other than John Quincy Adams! I guess even the great ones are capable of gross hypocrisy when it suits their purpose.

The failure of the Chase impeachment attempt did much to ensure the independence of the federal judiciary, and Rhenquist asserts that to this day there have been no further impeachments of federal judges based upon their judicial decisions.  A major test of this new-found judicial independence occurred two years later at the trial of Aaron Burr for treason, based upon plans he had supposedly made to cause the secession of the southwestern states during his two-year sojourn to that part of the country after he left the Vice-Presidency.

The Burr trial was presided over by Chief Justice Marshall, and from the beginning President Jefferson "took an inordinate interest in obtaining the conviction of Burr", and made thinly-veiled threats on the independence of the judiciary.  Marshall refused to yield to the pressure and made legal rulings that essentially required Burr's acquittal.  Rhenquist speculates that had Chase been convicted, Marshall would not have felt able to assert his independence as he did.

To set the stage for the Johnson impeachment case, Rehnquist presents an informative history of slavery in this country, starting with the delivery of twenty slaves to Jamestown in 1619.  Rehnquist highlights the fact that the slave trade was abolished by Congress in 1808, based on a specific provision in the "Constitution protecting the slave trade only until January 1, 1808.

Rhenquist's historical account eventually arrives at the start of the Lincoln presidency.  Lincoln intentionally chose a diverse cabinet, with appointees from New York, Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Connecticut, and Maryland.  Although this group did contain a diversity of views, it should be noted that none were from the deep South.

At his very first cabinet meeting, on March 9, 1861, Lincoln asked each cabinet member to give his views on whether it would be wise to send provisions to Fort Sumter, whose commander had sent word that his supplies were running low and substantial reinforcements were needed.  The cabinet members were given a week to think about it, and upon reconvening five answered unqualifiedly "no", one answered "yes", and one said not if it would result in civil war.

Lincoln sent his own emissaries to assess the situation, and the South Carolina governor made it clear to them that any attempt to reinforce Fort Sumter would mean civil war.  The cabinet again met, and this time was evenly divided.  Despite this, Lincoln ordered the reinforcements sent.

To me this was a clear error on Lincoln's part.  If, using his great eloquent powers, he cold not even convince a majority of his own cabinet, how could he possibly expect to unite the country for his war effort?  And besides, what was so wrong about letting those seven deep South states secede, based on the principles of self-determination on which our country was founded?  Surely we would have much less partisan rancor today had those seven states been allowed to go their own way.  (It should be noted that the other four states of the Confederacy seceded only after Lincoln decided to go to war.)

A civil war is a particularly odious kind of war.  For Lincoln to plunge headlong into civil war, without the support even of his own cabinet, was surely not warranted.  It must follow, then, that his exalted position in American history is not warranted.

The impeachment and trial of Andrew Johnson was a very interesting chapter in American history.  Johnson was impeached and tried because he had violated the Tenure in Office Act by removing and replacing Secretary of War Edwin Stanton.

This impeachment attempt was horribly flawed no matter how one looks at it.  First, from a political standpoint is was just plain silly.  The House voted impeachment on February 24, 1968.  With the next election less than a year away, it would make much more sense to simply vote Johnson out of office.

Fro a legal standpoint, it is doubtful that the Tenure in Office Act even applied to Johnson.  The Act only covered cabinet members "for the term of the president who appointed them and one month thereafter".  Since Stanton had been appointed by Lincoln, not by Johnson, those supporting Johnson argued that it didn't even apply.  Michael Les Benedict, author of "The Impeachment and Trial of Andrew Johnson", says that the only historian to delve into this issue intensively has concluded that the Democrats were right on this issue.

From a constitutional standpoint, the impeachment attempt was wrongheaded because the Tenure in Office Act was a clear violation of the separation of powers envisioned by the Founders.  Indeed, the Act was watered down in 1869 under Grant, and finally repealed under Cleveland in 1887.  And in 1926 the Supreme Court, ruling in a similar case, observed that the Tenure in Office Act had been invalid.

The Johnson impeachment trial failed because seven Republicans voted to acquit, and Rhenquist delves into the reasons given by most of them.  Senator Fessenden pointed out that each senator had taken a solemn oath to "do impartial justice, according to the constitution and the law", thereby emphasizing the judicial, rather than the political, nature of the proceeding.  He concluded that the Tenure in Office Act did not apply to protect Stanton from removal from office.  And even if he were wrong on this, it was at least a highly debatable point, so that the president should not be removed for his good faith belief in the Act's inapplicability.

Similarly, Senator Grimes wrote that:

"Nor can I suffer my judgment of he law governing this case to be influenced by political considerations.  I cannot agree to destroy the harmonious working of the constitution for sake of getting rid of an unacceptable president.  Whatever may be by opinion of the incumbent, I cannot consent to trifle with the high office he holds.  I can do nothing which, by implication, may be construed into an approval of impeachments as a part of future political machinery."

Senator Fowler wrote about how cabinet members are agents of the executive and the president has the right to select his own cabinet, a right guaranteed to him by the constitution.

Rhenquist looks at the Articles of Impeachment voted on by the Judiciary Committee against Nixon in 1974, and he concludes that the result was entirely consistent with the views of the seven "recusant Republicans" who voted to acquit Johnson.  This is based on the fact that of the five Articles of Impeachment presented against Nixon, the two of them that did not represent clear and serious abuses of presidential power were rejected by the Committee vote.  Thus, the article charging Nixon with making false statements to Congress about the bombing of Cambodia was rejected by a 26-12 vote.  And similarly, the article charging Nixon with wrongfully using public money to improve his San Clemente home, and with wrongfully taking deductions on his income tax returns, was also rejected by the same 26-12 vote.

Since Rhenquist's book, published in 1992, there has been the Clinton impeachment and trial, and now the current move to impeach Trump, so a few comments on these efforts seem warranted.  The Clinton attempt was obviously way out of bounds, as there was no "clear and serious abuse of presidential power".  It was purely a political prosecution, and the Republicans came out of it looking like partisan hacks, especially the House Republicans who prosecuted the "case".

The Trump situation presents more difficult issues to analyze.  The Mueller Report describes thirty-eight separate incidents of potential obstructions of justice.  Surely Trump did try to interfere with the Mueller investigation, but his efforts were unsuccessful.  An example is his instructions to Corey Lewandowski, his former campaign manager, to tell Attorney General Sessions to give a speech denouncing the special counsel's investigation.  However, Lewandowski was not comfortable with doing this, and never did deliver the message to Sessions.

It should be noted that "obstruction of justice" is a very murky, vague, and broad concept.  Like beauty, it exists in the eye of the beholder.  And, since Trump was unsuccessful, he cannot even be said to be guilty of it; rather, at best he would be guilty of attempted obstruction of justice.

Those who favor pursuing Trump's impeachment are victims of the fallacy, "I can, therefore I should".  The fact is, the existence of adequate grounds for impeachment is not a sufficient reason to proceed.  As set out by Laurence Tribe and Joshua Matz in To End a Presidency: The Power of Impeachment, the existence of adequate ground is only one of a three-part test. The second part of the test is "as a matter of political reality, is the effort to remove the president likely to succeed in the House and then in the Senate".  And the third prong, then, is "is it genuinely necessary to resort to the impeachment power, recognizing that the resulting collateral damage will likely be significant".

In thinking this through, it is obvious that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is correct in refusing to push the impeachment issue.  Trump's shortcomings were well known during the campaign, and he was elected anyway.  Any impeachment effort would surely be seen as a partisan prosecution, and would fail on a party line vote, with the damage to the country being enormous.  Even Newt Gingrich now admits he and his fellow House Republicans were wrong to pursue the Clinton impeachment, and he praises Pelosi for her more temperate approach.

In summing up the six impeachment attempts mentioned in this review, we can say that the Tyler and Johnson impeachments were purely political, with no misconduct being alleged.  Tyler's alleged wrongdoing was that he vetoed measures passed by Congress which he disagreed with.  Similarly, Johnson disagreed with the Radical Republicans concerning Reconstruction policy.  Both were honest differences of opinion and obviously not proper grounds for impeachment.

Clinton was guilty of wrongdoing, but it was private wrongdoing and not related to his public duties as president.  Kudos to the five Republicans who had the political courage to vote against conviction on both Articles:  Olympia Snowe (ME), Susan Collins (ME), Lincoln Chafee (RI), Jim Jeffords (VT), and Arlen Spector (PA).

Five additional Republicans voted against conviction on the perjury Article.  What is so striking to me is the careless way in which the term "perjury" was thrown around back then, sort of like with "obstruction of justice" today.  Many people don't seem to understand that not every instance of lying under oath is perjury. Rather, it has to be lying under oath about something which is material to an issue in the case at hand.  Clinton's consensual relationship with Monica Lewinsky was totally immaterial to any issues in the Paula Jones case, as the trial judge eventually found in dismissing the case. Hence, the 45 Republican Senators who voted for conviction on this article are guilty of gross partisanship blindness.

Chase was certainly guilty of incompetence, but the Senate wisely rejected this as a basis for removal from office. Nixon was guilty of gross misconduct, and would have been rightfully removed from office had he not resigned.

Trump presents a somewhat unique case.  He is certainly guilty of maladministration; in the words of the British ambassador, Kim Darroch, his administration has been "dysfunctional, inept and chaotic".  However, we need to remember that maladministration is not a ground for impeachment.  In fact, it was specifically suggested at the Constitutional Convention by George Mason, who promptly withdrew it when James Madison pointed out that "so vague a term will be equivalent to a tenure during pleasure of the Senate".

Returning full circle to Rehnquist, he concludes his excellent book by stating:

"The importance of these two acquittals [Chase and Johnson] in our constitutional history can hardly be overstated.  We rightly think of our courts as the final voice in the interpretation of our constitution, and therefore tend to think of constitutional law in terms of cases decided by the courts.  But these these two "cases"--decided not by the courts but by the United States Senate--surely contributed as much to the maintenance of our tripartite federal system of government as any case decided by any court."

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

An Amazing Endgame Position: A Tale of Zugzwangs

This position came up in the recent world championship match, with black to move:

White:  King on g6, Pawns on f5 and h5, Bishop on c4
Black:   King on f8, pawn on f6, Bishop on g5, Knight on d4

What makes this position so amazing is that, despite its seeming simplicity, none of the top players of the world were able to figure out the wining move!  And, what's even more amazing is that even after being shown the winning move, found by a computer, none of the top players in the world could see why the move won!!

Before delving into the wining continuation, I would offer some observations about the position.

1)  World champion Magnus Carlsen, playing white, has sacrificed a piece in an effort to relieve the pressure he was facing.  Carlsen candidly admitted after the game that he didn't know if this was the best move, but he just didn't know what else to do. Hence, white is now playing for a draw, and black for a win.

2)  It is apparent that white must keep his bishop on the a2-g8 diagonal, in order to prevent the black king from getting to the h8 corner. If black's king does get to the h8 corner, then his knight will check the white king from a dark square, forcing the king to f7, after which the black king leisurely walks up the h-file to capture the white pawn on h5.

3)  White's passed pawn on h5 seems like a threat, but black can stop it.  For example, if it was white to move in the starting position, play could go 1 h6 Nf3 2 h7 Ne5+ 3 Kh5 Kg7 and the black king stops the pawn.

4)  What the foregoing line illustrates is the advantage knights have in close positions like this. There is a common belief that bishops are better than knights, but when the pawns are all on one side of the board in an endgame, especially when some are locked up and therefore immobile as here, the knight is hugely better.

An analogy could be made to the rule of thumb that a knife is better than a gun when the adversaries are within 21 feet of each other, as illustrated in a memorable "Criminal Minds" episode called "The Tribe", in which the BAU team visits a Native American reservation in New Mexico.

Based on the foregoing, it might be supposed that the position is a draw. Indeed, that is what happened in the actual game, which continued 1...Nf3 2 Kh7! Ne5 3 Bb3 Ng4 4 Bc4 Ne3 5 Bd3 Ng4 6 Bc4 Nh6 7 Kg6 Ke7 8 Bb3 Kd6 9 Bc2 Ke5 10 Bd3 Kf4 11 Bc2 Ng4 12 Bb3 Ne3 13 h6 Bxh6 Drawn

But the computer came up with a move so totally counter-intuitive that no human ever considered it. (I will highlight the winning line.) The winning move is 1...Bh4!! All the top players, match participants and spectators alike, thought white could hold the draw by responding 2 Bd5. However, what the computer has seen is that black can win by playing his knight to e2, instead of to f3. Hence, black makes a waiting move, forcing the white bishop to unguard the e2 square.

After 1...Bh4 2 Bd5, play continues 2...Ne2!, and now 3 Bf3 loses to the amazing Ng1!!, another move which no human would ever even consider playing, as it seemingly traps his knight on g1. After 4 Bg4 Kg8 the win becomes obvious, as white will soon run out of moves and have to free the knight, which can then head to e5, freeing the black king.

The top human players thought 4 Bd5 would still hold (instead of Bg4), but this falls to 4...Bg5! 5 Kh7! (Avoiding 5 h6 Ne2 6 h7 Nf4mate) Ne2! 6 Bf3 Ng3 7 Bg4 (Not 7 Kg6 Kg8) Kf7 8 Kh8! 

And now it looks like white can draw by simply moving his king between h7 and h8. However, black has a diabolically clever plan to reposition his bishop to f8, creating a mating net in the h8 corner.


Bd2! 9 Kh7 Bb4! 10 Kh8 Bf8! 11 Kh7 Ne4! and white is soon mated!  Black has the classical bishop + knight mate against a bare king, as white's pawns and bishop are relegated to irrelevancy.

You might suppose that white could try 10 h6 to thwart black's mating net, the idea being that white can now drive the black king away from f7 by delivering a bishop check on h5 whenever white moves his knight to e4.  However, black plays 10...Bf8, putting white in zugzwang. If white moves his king, he loses the pawn on h6; and if he moves his bishop to any square but h3, he loses his pawn on f5. Consequently, play continues 11 Bh3 Ne4 11 Bg4 Ng5+ 12 Kh8 Bxh6 13 Bh5+ Kf8 followed by 14...Bg7mate. Black's domination of the dark squares at the end is a wonder to behold!

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Prediction Analysis



                                                  Mine
AL East:       Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
AL Central:  Indians, Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Royals
AL West:      Astros, Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Mariners
NL East:        Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Mets, Marlins
NL Central:  Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Pirates
NL West:      Dodgers, Rockies, Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants

                                         Sports Illustrated
AL East:       same as mine
AL Central:  Twins, Indians, White Sox, Royals, Tigers
AL West:      Astros, Athletics, Angels, Mariners, Rangers
NL East:        Phillies, Nationals, Mets, Braves, Marlins
NL Central:  same as mine
NL West:      Dodgers, Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants

                                              Bleacher Report
AL East:       Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles
AL Central:  same as SI
AL West:      same as SI
NL East:        same as mine
NL Central:  Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Reds, Pirates
NL West:      same as mine

                                                  USA Today
AL East:       same as mine
AL Central:  same as SI
AL West:      same as SI
NL East:        Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins
NL Central:   Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, Reds
NL West:       Dodgers, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Padres, Giants


Analysis:  USA Today’s predictions are a composite of six people, and they look that way, seemingly mirroring last year’s finishes rather than offering any insight into the coming year.  SI’s picks seem the most imaginative, giving the Twins the nod over the Indians, and picking the Padres for second. 

Here are some team-by-team observations:
Red Sox:   Only Bleacher Report has them repeating.
Twins:       SI has them overtaking the Indians.
Royals:     Only I have them still in last.
Angels:     Only I have them in second.
Mariners:  Only I have them last.
Nationals: Only USA Today has them in first.
Phillies:    Only USA Today has them as low as third.
Braves:     Only SI has them as low as fourth.
Reds:        Only USA Today has them in last.
Padres:     Only SI has them as high as second, while only USA Today has them as low as fourth.

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

MLB Predictions for 2019

Sports Illustrated has again come out with its list of the top 100 MLB players, so that analysis will have some bearing on my thoughts for the coming year. The Yankees head the list with 8 players in the top 100, followed by the Red Sox and Astros with 7 each, then the Brewers, Dodgers, Cardinals and Indians with 6 each, the Nationals, Rockies and Phillies with 5 each, and the Cubs and Angels with 4 each.  Four teams have nobody on the list--Tigers, Orioles, Rangers, and Marlins.

But we have to be careful not to put too much stock in who has the most stars.  Baseball can be termed a "weakest link" sport, unlike the other major team sports, meaning that in baseball you can't go to the same players over and over. Even the best players only get to bat one out of nine times, and can only field balls hit to them.

Added to this is what SI has termed the "gig economy", meaning that role players are being utilized more than ever before in baseball, with a set lineup fast becoming a thing of the past.  The Dodgers, despite all their good players, did not have a starter who started more than 140 games in the past two years, nor did they have a pitcher who threw more than 175 innings.  What this means is that role players are more important than ever, and superstars less important.

Another important consideration in my thinking this year is Bleacher Report's ranking of the farm systems for every team.  I will use this to break the ties, when I cannot decide otherwise between two teams.

So, with all that in mind, here we go.

AL East:  Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles

The Yanks have the most players in the top 100, and seem poised to give the Red Sox a run for their money.  Undoubtedly both teams will be in the playoffs again, as they were last year.  Rays have the #5 ranked farm system, while the Jays and O's are both on hard times.

AL Central:  Indians, Twins, White Sox, Tigers, Royals

Some commentators are questioning whether the Indians can repeat, but with four starting pitchers in the top 100, and with the 5th, Bieber, set to have a breakout year, I think they will win the division easily. I can't see any of the other teams even being competitive.

AL West:  Astros, Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Mariners

The Astros made what I consider the most overlooked free agent signing of the offseason when they signed Michael Brantley away from the Indians.  The Astros don't need any more superstars, but a guy like Brantley will  make them better, and will be a good mentor for the younger players.  The Angels for 2nd is a sentimental pick, as the A's will likely beat them out.  The Mariners have the worst farm system, so they get the nod for last.

NL East:  Phillies, Braves, Nationals, Mets, Marlins

The Phillies showed they are committed to winning with the signing of Bryce Harper.  Besides that, their farm system is ranked #8.  The Nationals have disappointed me so often in recent years that I am giving up on picking them to win their division.  The Mets have their usual good pitching which always seems to disappoint, the Matt Harvey fiasco of a few years ago being a good example

NL Central:  Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Reds, Pirates

The Brewers are the up-and-coming team in the division.  The Cubs have made some serious missteps recently, such as the botched negotiations last year with Jake Arrietta, and the ridiculous signing of Yu Darvish, who is so dense and lazy that he could not figure out from one start to the next in the 2017 World Series that he was tipping his pitches.  (Hey, Yu, why don't you try watching some video?)  The Cubs farm system is the second-worst of the 30 teams, so I expect that they will be on the decline during the coming years.  The Cards have historically been the best organization in baseball, with the best fan base, and they often surprise with their results.  Hence, I pick them to overtake the Cubs for 2nd, although it would be no surprise if the Cubs finish ahead of them.  I like the Reds acquisition of Yasuil Puig; I think his presence will be a shot in the arm to the team and to its long-suffering fans.  Reds also have the #9 farm system.

NL West:  Dodgers, Rockies, Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants

The Rockies showed they are committed to winning with their great signing of Nolan Arenado to a long-term deal, but I doubt they have quite enough to catch the high-flying Dodgers.  The Padres  made a big splash with the signing of Manny Machado, and they have the top-rated farm system.  They are a sentimental favorite to improve, as San Diego has never had a championship of any kind in the major pro sports, and with the Chargers gone, the Padres are the city's only hope for a championship.  I'll be rooting for them.

Saturday, February 16, 2019

MLB Free Agency

MLB players are wringing their hands over the supposedly slow pace of free agent signings, and there is talk of a player's strike when the current contract runs out. However, upon closer examination it is obvious that the problem isn't the owners' reluctance to sign free agents; rather, it is that the players are overvaluing their worth.

Even since Bill James did some groundbreaking research in the '80s which revealed that a player's prime is 26-30, and not 28-32 as previously believed, the owners have continued to give long-term contracts to players in their 30s, usually to their ultimate chagrin.  But now, the owners have finally wised up and realized what any astute baseball observer has known for over 30 years, and that is that it is sheer folly to give a long-term contract to a player in his 30s.  There are too many examples like Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez for the owners to be able to  ignore this reality anymore.

Bryce Harper turned down a 10-year, $300 million contract.  What in the world was he thinking?  The idea that anybody in their right mind would top this is ludicrous. 

One thing that baseball management has been evolving to is what Sports Illustrated has termed "the gig economy".  This consists of more use of role players and less use of everyday starters, as illustrated by the Dodgers, who have won two consecutive National League pennants without any player starting 140 games in a season and without any pitcher throwing more than 175 innings in a season.

What this illustrates is that baseball is a "weakest link" game, in which it is impssible for one player to dominate.  After all, a slugger only comes to thee plate once every nine batters, and a starting pitcher only takes the mound once every five days.  It is more important, then, to have five or ten competent role players, which you can get for the same price as one superstar.

So, we see that the problem is that players overvalue their worth, pushed by the players union which is always working to raise the salaries, all of which are guaranteed.  If the players union strikes when the current contract ends, it will be the players who will end up with egg on their faces.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

The Mistreatment of Bob Costas

There has been no better sportscaster in my lifetime than Bob Costas. His intelligent, erudite commentary always has been right on target.

He was recently scheduled to host the Super Bowl as the last event in his remarkable 40-year career with NBC.  However, NBC, to its eternal shame, pulled him off the broadcast at the last minute, due to his comments on the danger of concussions. At a journalism symposium in Maryland, he had said that 'The reality is that this game destroys people's brains".

What Costas said is certainly true, and not news to anyone. And yet, NBC decided this was more honesty than it could tolerate.  This just illustrates the unholy alliance between the TV industry and the NFL.  Rather than practicing real journalism, NBC chose to kowtow to the NFL.  Boos and hisses to this pathetic excuse for a TV network.

Monday, February 11, 2019

Jeff Bezos and The National Enquirer

The National Enquirer has skated on the fringes of legality and respectability for a long time, but it is continuing on a downward trajectory into journalistic worthlessness.

The Enquirer used to brag that it had never been successfully sued for libel, but then Carol Burnett took extreme umbrage at a false story depicting her as an alcoholic, and sued and won, after giving heartbreaking testimony about how her parents had been alcoholics and for that reason she didn't drink herself.

And then we have the more recent stories about how the Enquirer assisted the Trump campaign and election by paying hush money to his mistresses.

But the Enquirer has met its match in Amazon founder Jeff Bezos.  Instead of lying down and capitulating to the Enquirer's blackmail demands, Bezos has pushed back, blogging in detail about the Enquirer's attempts to blackmail him into calling off an investigation into how the Enquirer obtained private emails and pictures of himself and his mistress. Bezos is 100% within his rights to have this matter investigated, as this information could not have been obtained by the Enquirer except through a blatant invasion of his privacy. 

Bezos published letters sent to his lawyer in which the Enquirer insists that the pictures it has published are a legitimate matter of public concern, which is debatable at best.  Bezos is not running for any office, and there is no basis for a claim that his private life is a legitimate subject of intrusion.  The Enquirer insists that it obtained the information in a normal news-gathering way, which is laughable since it could only have been obtained through illegal electronic surveillance.

We need more people like Jeff Bezos, people who are willing to stand up for what is right and decent. Kudos to him, and boos and jeers to the mud-slinging Enquirer.