Will Trump Be Prosecuted?

The Justice Department no doubt can make out a case that Trump's taking government documents to his Florida home violated the law. But not all violations of the law are worthy of prosecution. There are many additional factors that need to be taken into account.

Since the FBI raid the Trump camp has offered many explanations and excuses for his actions. So much so that comedians and liberal commentators have had a field day in gleefully reciting all the disparate explanations that have been offered.

However, the problem with a jury trial is that you never know what tangent the jury is going to go off on. All it takes is for a jury to latch onto one of the many defenses Trump would put forth. Hence, the chance of a conviction would be slim, in my opinion, and this has to be a major consideration for the DOJ in considering a prosecution.

I think the Atlanta DA has much more of chance at a successful prosecution for election tampering. This is because the tape of the phone call with the Georgia Secretary of State pretty much makes the case, and it would be hard for a jury not to convict based on this alone. In this phone call, Trump is clearly trying to bully the Sec. of State into falsifying the Georgia election results.

The DOJ has to consider the political fallout from prosecuting Trump. It would accentuate the political divide in this country, and no doubt accelerate the arrival of the coming civil war.

I keep thinking back to Ford's decision to pardon Nixon in 1974, a month after Nixon had resigned his presidency. This decision was undoutedly the correct one, as it spared the country the spectacle of an ex-president being prosecuted, and allowed the country to go forward after Watergate. And yet, Ford probably lost the 1976 election to Carter because of the pardon. How fickle the US electoraste is! They re-elect Nixon in a landslide in 1972, and then go to the other exterme of wanting hiim prosecuted! Surely signs of an incompetent electorate.

Whether the electorate will turn on Trump as it did on Nixon is unclear. The evidence suggests that about 30% of the electorate will remain rabid Trump supporters, and no facts can cause these people to change their allegiance to him. But the remaining 70% will likely be totally disgusted as the evidence comes out about the many crimes this guy has committed.