Friday, October 23, 2020

The State of the Race

 The second and final debate took place last night.  Biden supporters are breathing a sigh of relief, as the notoriously gaffe-prone Biden held his own, and in fact three overnight surveys had him as the winner.  CNN had eleven undecided North Carolina supporters give feedback afterwards.  They had Biden winning 9-0, and all seven that made up their minds based on the debate were for Biden.

Trump actually restrained himself and did not interrupt like he did during the first debate.  However, the CNN fact-checker had him spouting even more lies than in the first debate.  He insisted we were "rounding the corner" on the virus, when in fact the virus is on the rise in most states.  He falsely claimed Biden would take 180 million people off their health insurance, when he has always been for a public option, and this was actually a bone of contention during the primary season.

There is still angst that the polls might be wrong, as they were thought to be in 2016.  However, I believe Biden will win, for three reasons.  First, the pollsters have adjusted for the demographic weighting errors which skewed the results four years ago.  Second, Clinton arguably lost because of the infamous Comey letter, saying the FBI investigation of her emails had been re-opened, and there is no such "October surprise" on the horizon here.  Third, Clinton supporters were notoriously lacking in enthusiasm, and many stayed home.  This time around, Biden supporters are quite enthusiastic, and the "enthusiasm gap" which we saw in 2016 has disappeared.

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