Why This Time Is Different

Many Biden supporters are expressing angst that the polls might be wrong, given how wrong they supposedly were four years ago.  Many convoluted theories abound--pollsters not understanding the landline vs. cell phone issue, not properly weighting different demographic or age groups, etc.

I suggest we apply Occam's razor, the principle that says the simplest explanation is usually the best.  An article in electoral-vote.com a few days after the 2016 election was headlined "Democrats lost because Democrats stayed home".  A very simple and to-the-point explanation.  What happened is that people who, if they voted would have voted for Hillary, chose to stay home, because they just weren't motivated enough to go to the polls to vote for her.

Donna Brazile, in her book on the Clinton campaign, says she knew the campaign was in trouble when she would visit state campaign headquarters and see a total lack of enthusiasm for the Clinton candidacy.  The problem in 2016 is that the Democrats offered a candidate who generated no enthusiasm whatsoever, no passion at all.  Hillary never made a strong case for why we should vote for her; with her robotic campaigning style, she just was unable to reach the average voter.  Trump, by contrast, generated lots of passion among a certain portion of the electorate.  The result was that many people who would have voted for Hillary, and told this to the pollsters, ended up staying home.

This time is totally different.  There is great enthusiasm for the Biden candidacy; granted, much of this is based on an opposition to Trump, but no matter, the point is there is great enthusiasm there.  People are coming to understand the importance of voting.  Old people have always understood this, because it was impressed upon them in the Civics courses they took in high school  (My mom used to talk often of her Civics course; it was obviously an important part of her formative years.)  Now, the younger generation is getting its civics course through current events, rather than in the classroom.

Other than the 2016 glitch, the polls in recent elections have been remarkably accurate, and I believe they are now also.  The outcome will be positive, provided we turn out the vote!

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