"The Real Majority", by Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg

This 1970 book is about psephology, the study of elections. The word derives from the Greek psephos, meaning pebble. The material relied on by the authors are the election of 1968, and the ones leading up to it. They also examine the mayoral eelctions of 1969.

The authors write about the great ideological issues of the past: The gold vs. silver issue of 1896 which dominated our politics for 30 years, and then the econoomic issues of 1932, which also dominated for 30+ years.

But the authors demonstrate that in 1968 economic issues took a back seat, and social issues dominated. Crime became the number one issue, not, as most mistakenly believe, the Vietnam War. The authors rely on the numerous surveys done by the Harris and Gallup polling organizations which demonstrate that crime and racial unrest were the two main issues in 1968. Much was made of the fact that half of all women were afaid to walk alone at night. The authors predict that whoever can capture the center on these issues, as the GOP did in 1968, will win future elections. The claim that "law and order" was a code word for racism was a losing argument for the Democrats in 1968. All the middle of the road voters who were genuinely concerned about crime in the streets were being called racists, which was NOT an effective strategy for winning over those voters.

What has happened since 1968 has certainly borne out the authors' prophecy. "Family values" dominated the 1980s elections, and abortion and other social issues have dominated recent elections. What has made the switch from economic issues possible is the success of the era when economic issues dominated. The success of the union movement has paved the way for many workers to join the middle class, and many of them have become more conservative.

The issue of abortion in 2023 demonstrates the truth of the authors' conclusions. The right has taken an extreme position on abortion, out of step with the vast majoirty of U.S. voters, and it is costing the GOP at the ballot box. Every referendum on abortion to date has been won by the pro-choice crowd, even in red states like Kansas. The best chance Biden has to win next year would be to run every single ad showing Trump bragging about being responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. Any other strategy would be a loser for Biden, who at this writing has an approval rating of a pathetic 34%, the lowest yet for his presidency.