Wednesday, May 29, 2024

"The Primary Solution", by Nick Troiana

The author convincingly demonstrates that moving to nonpartisan primaries is the way to alleviate the extreme partisanship which infects our politics in this country. Currently there are only five states with nonpartisan primaries: California, Washington, Alaska, Nebraska and Louisiana.

The 2022 Senate election in Alaska illustrates the value of the nonpartisan primary system. Lisa Murkowski had voted for the Trump impeachment, and so she was being "primaried" by Trump in her race for re-election. Trump even went to Alaska and personally campaigned against Murkowski before the August primary, calling her a RINO. On the same day that Liz Cheney lost her Wyoming primary by a margin of 66% to 29%, Murkowski finished in the top four in Alaska and went on to the general election. In the general election the top four faced off, and, after making use of ranked choice voting, Murkowksi was returned to the Senate over the Trump-endorsed candidate with 53.7% of the vote. Had her fate been decided in a partisan Republican primary instead, she would have been trounced, just like Liz Cheney was in Wyomnig.

In 2022 Alaska had an equally interesting primary for its only House seat, with Sarah Palin running for the seat vacated when longtime Congressman Dan Young died suddenly. Palin finished first in a field of 48 candidates, receiving 27% of the vote. Finishing fourth with 10% was Mary Peltola, a member of the Yup'ik tribe and a Democrat. But in the general election, Peltola won with 40.2% of the vote, and, after application of the ranked choice process, she beat Palin 51.5% to 48.5%. Palin ranted and raved that the new system was unfair, but careful analysis showed that it was in fact more responsive to the wishes of the voters than the old system was.

Thess examples illustrate how the nonpartisan primary forces candidates to appeal to the entire electorate, not just the ones from their own party. And, since only the most passionate voters tend to vote in partisan primaries, the most extreme candidates tend to win in those primaries, as the extremists tend to be more passionate than the moderates, and therefore more motivated to vote. In fact, analyses cited by Troiana show that Congressional elections are typically decided by only about 8% of the electorate. This is because most Congressional districts have been gerrymandered to be "safe" districts for one party or the other; therefore, whoever wins that party's primary is a shoo-in to win the general election. And due to the usual low turnout for partisan primaries, the actual vote for the winning candidate comes to only about 8% of the total electorate.

The partisan gerrymandering has gotten so bad that today only about 6% of House seats are considered to be competitive. This means that the elections in 94% of the races are decided in a primary, and the vast majority of these primaries are partisan primaries. This will change as nonpartisan primaries gain in favor, but it will be long, hard slog to get there.

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