Trump will lose. A major factor influencing the result of any criminal trial is whether the jury likes the defendnat. This can even apply to the lawyers. I've been personally involved in two jury trials in which the ultimate verdict was due in large part to how the jury felt about one of the lawyers.
The problem with Trump is that he gave the jury plenty of reasons to dislike him. In the early part of the trial, he repeatedly reacted audibly to witness testimony, resulting in the Judge having to repeatedly admonish him. And then there is his legal team, which turned the jury off with their boorish and improper behavior, behavior mandated by their client. And finally there is the main defense witness, whose behavior was described asd "contemptuous by the Judge.
With such a low likeability factor at work, the jury will likely convict.
Trump will win. There are just too many dots to connect for the jury to convict, at least on the felony charge. Trump himself did not falisfy his busines recoprds, so the state must prove he "caused" them to be falsified. The evidence on this is thin. And then there is the matter of proving that the falsification was done to cover up a crime. The Judge has ruled that the state doesn't even have to specify what crime the defendant allegedly was trying to cover up. What this means is that different jurors can base a vote to convict on different crimes, which doesn't seem right to me. My guess is that Trump would have a good argument on appeal that this violates a defendant's right to be told specifically what he is being charged with.
The whole thing is a big waste of time and resources. Trump is being charged with a nonvolent crime, and has no prior criminal record. The sentencing guidelines would surely make this a case for presumptive probation. So why all the sound and fury; it is accomplishing nothing.
The prosecution should have learned from the infamous prosecution of John Edwards in 2011. Edwards collected nearly $1 million in illegal campaign contributions, funneled the money to support his pregnant mistress, and falsified his campaign records to conceal this from the public during his 2008 campaign for the presidencny. He was charged with six counts of violating campaign finance laws. The trial lasted six weeks, including nine days of jury deliberations. The jury acquitted Edards on one count and deadlocked on the other five counts. The Justice Dept. decided not to retry Edwards.
This illustrates what a waste of time these prosecutions are. The Edwards case was more serious and much more clear-cut, and prosecuted by the federal Justice Dept. rather than by a state, but still no conviction could be obtained.
Only harm can result from the misguided Trump prosecution. Trump supporters will be reinforced in their belief that their candidate is being unfairly persecuted, a belief which is not unfounded. Valuable resources that could be used to prosecute violent crimes are being dissipated.
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