Saturday, October 5, 2024

The 2024 MLB Wild Card Round

The Wild Card round is now history, and the Division Series starts later today. A recap is in order.

The week started out on a really odd note on Monday. Two games of the Braves-Mets season-ending series had been postponed due to Hurricane Helene. Consequently, the Braves and Mets had to play a makeup doubleheader on Monday. The makeup games would not have been necessary if both teams had been out of the running for playoff spots. But, amazingly, the teams were tied for the second and third NL wild card spots. This set up the odd situation in which whoever won the first game was in, but the other team could still get in by winning the second game. If one team won both games, then the Arizona Diamondbacks would claim the third wild card spot in the NL.

The first game of the doubleheader was one of the greatest games in recent memory. The Mets trailed 3-0 going into the 8th inning, but came alive in the 8th to score six runs. Not to be denied, the Braves rallied back in the bottom of the 8th to go back ahead 7-6, aided by the failure of the Mets pitcher to cover first on a ground ball. But in the 9th, Francisco Lindor hit a two-run homer to win it for the never-say-die Mets. Lindor had also been a key part of the 8th-inning rally with a hit to keep the rally going, and then a daring dash home to score the go-ahead run from third on a shallow sac fy to centerfield.

The Braves came back to win the second game of the doubleheader, leaving the Diamondbacks out of the playoffs, and resulting in the strange sight of simultaneous celebrations in each clubhouse for making the playoffs!

So now the question was whether the Braves and Mets would be too worn out to do any good in the Wild Card series, as both had to travel and be ready to play the next day. The question of whether extra rest benefits the resting team is an open question. On the surface it seems it should be a benefit, as the resting team can line up its pitching for maximum advantage, while their opponent is playing hard-fought playoff games. However, last year the number one and two seeds in each league did not benefit from getting to rest during the wild card round. Only the Astros won their division series, while the other three teams all lost, the Orioles falling three games to none to the Rangers, the Phillies falling 3-1 to the Braves, and the Dodgers getting swept by the Diamondbacks.

The Mets came through with a two games to one win over the Brewers, taking to heart the Tim Walz saying that "we can sleep when we're dead". The third and deciding game featured another late-inning comeback by the amazing Mets. Trailing 2-0 going into the ninth, Lindor led off with a walk (a huge blunder by the Brewers pitcher, given the two-run lead), followed by a hit and a 3-run home run from Pete Alonso. The TV announcer had pointed out that this could be the last at bat as a Met for Alonso, who will be a free agent after the season. But Pete was not ready for his season to end, and he came through with an opposite-field blast. The Mets added an insurance run, and won 4-2.

As for the Braves, they had to travel overnight to San Diego to meet the Padres. I was rooting heaviily for the Padres, who have become my favorite team, for a number of reasons. Their owner has committed to putting a winning team on the field by spending hewvily on free agents. But after a disappointing 2023 season, payroll was drastically cut for this season; and yet, the Padres made the playoffs, after missing out in 2023. This is reminiscent of the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who had a record 116-win season after getting rid of their three superstars--Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, and Alex Rodriguez. The oxymoronic phrase "addition by subtraction" was coined to describe this phenomenon.

The San Diego climate is another big plus for me. It has a mild, year-round Mediterraneran climate, ideal for bseball. And it has had only four rainouts in the last twenty years!

A third plus is that it has become, after the loss of the Chargers, a baseball-only town. And the fans have responded, supporting the team with the fourth-highest average per-game attendance in 2024. The three higher teams (Phillies, Yankees and Dodgers) all won their divisions, so the Padres had the highest attendance of all non-division winners.

As for the Braves, I have been lukewarm about them ever since their blase fans refused to fill the seats during the first round of the playoffs during the 1990s.

The Padres responded by sweeping the Braves, two games to none. In the AL, The Tigers and Royals prevailed in sweeps over the Astros and Orioles, respectively. My working theory explaining these results is that a team's performance late in the season is more significant than its overall season record. The three best teams in September were the Tigers (17-8), Mets (16-8), and Padres (16-8), all three of which won their Wild Card series.

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